Weekly Insights - 9th November 2025

After a break to focus on exams, I'm back with this week's commodities market commentary!

Oil

Oil prices held in a narrow range this week, around the low-$60s/bbl. The market has been steadied by an OPEC+ agreement to raise output by a modest 137,000 bpd in December, and pause further hikes through Q1 amid fears of a supply glut. However, prices remain subdued amid high supply and weak demand. Brent traded around $63 at the time of writing, and WTI just under $60.

In the U.S., crude stockpiles swelled unexpectedly with a 5.2 million barrel build reported by EIA. Prices also fell as a result of flight cuts, due to a shortage of air traffic controllers who are going unpaid amid the U.S. government shutdown.

Credit: (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

President Trump's meeting with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was being closely watched, to see if a deal resulted that would ease sanctions on Russia's Lukoil an Rosneft. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, EU-member states moved to phase out Russian oil. Landlocked Hungary, who rely heavily on Russian imports, were granted an initial exemption, along with Slovakia and Czech-Republic. However, Hungary has deepened its dependence on Russian crude, from 61% pre-invasion to 92% in 2025. Despite concerns over this buying funding Putin's war chest, Trump controversially granted Hungary a one-year exemption from US sanctions for buying Russian oil and gas.

On the demand side, global growth is sluggish amid slowing economic activity, while U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran are capping supply increases. In sum, plentiful OPEC+ and non-OPEC output is offsetting any geopolitical risk, with analysts still expecting the market to run a small surplus into 2026.

Gas

U.S. natural gas fundamentals are strong. Baker Hughes reported U.S. gas rig counts jumping to 128 (the highest level since August 2023), as drillers chase sustained demand. In fact, U.S. energy firms produced a record amount of natural gas in Q3, as producers try to keep up with power-hungry data centres and an LNG export boom. On the LNG side, the U.S. exported a record 10mmt of LNG in October, with over two-thirds heading to Europe. Henry Hub gas futures were around $4.30/mmbtu by end of week.

In Europe, TTF benchmark gas has been trading around €30-32/MWh as inventories are still relatively low ahead of winter. Notably, German utilities have ramped up gas-fired generation (nearly 19% of power mix YTD) on the back of weak wind and solar output.

Shipping rates for LNG tanker freight have spiked (near multi-month highs) on tight vessel availability, reflecting the scramble for gas cargoes globally.

Power

European wholesale power markets remain under pressure from a mix of weather and policy factors. Wind and solar generation has been erratic (wind down YoY), resulting in thermal plants being called into service more often.

In Germany, extended calm, dark conditions ("Dunkelflaute") last winter pushed peak wholesale prices above €300/MWh, but a regulatory probe has found no market abuse occurred during these events. The country is now actively arranging to bring new firm generation online to avoid repeat shortages. Renewables still supply a majority of power. January - September data shows around 57% of Germany's energy mix came from wind/solar/hydro.

As winter approaches, the outlook is for improving wind output, which could temper prices. However, any extended cold snap would keep gas-fired power usage high. Overall, record electricity demand and tight grids in certain regions could push wholesale prices higher if renewables disappoint, though as of early November most contracts have shown only modest gains.

Metals

Aluminium and copper both surged on supply concerns and speculative buying. London aluminium climbed to $2,900/tonne (LME 3M) by midweek, the highest since mid-2022, as funds built record net-long positions. Speculators' net longs exceeded 130,000 contracts, betting on a tightening market as China's production hits caps.

Copper also hit new record highs (c. $11,200/t) as mine disruptions and weak U.S.-China trade fears have tightened the market. On the upside, strong speculative inflows and continued industrial demand underpin base metals.

Gold reached fresh records above $4,000/oz this week, driven by safe-haven flows. A softer U.S. dollar and Fed rate cut expectations (amid the U.S. shutdown and soft jobs data) support prices currently. Silver and platinum also gained on similar safe-haven demand, despite strong supply. Overall, precious metals rallied sharply in the face of economic uncertainty. Gold's surge to $4,000 is nearly 170% above its October 2022 lows.

Agriculture (Grains & Oilseeds)

Soybean markets jumped this week on news of a China-U.S. agricultural trade thaw. Chinese buyers are booking new December-March imports from Brazil as it readies to resume large U.S. purchases. Chicago November soy futures rallied to a 15-month high ($9.90/bushel) on hopes that Beijing will cut tariffs under the new deal.

By contrast, U.S. corn futures (Dec 2025) held around $4.30-$4.40. Traders note U.S. farmers may pivot more to corn acreage next spring: the corn-to-soy price ratio (~2.25) favours corn planting.

In Europe, particularly France/Germany/UK, sowing of winter grains has advanced rapidly amid favourable (dry) weather in October. This could keep supplies of Europe's main cereal crop, soft wheat, stable.

Across crops, global harvests are expected to be large. The U.S. Department of Agriculture and trade groups forecast record corn and soy yields this autumn. As a result, abundant supplies will hit the market, keeping grain prices near multi-year lows. Despite short-term rallies on trade news, analysts broadly expect grain/oilseed markets will remain under pressure without a major weather shock.

Bio

Biofuel policy has been in focus, particularly in the U.S., under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The EPA is finalising how to reallocate small-refinery exemptions, with an industry proposal that would have large refiners cover roughly half of the waived blending quotas (about 550 mgal of lost demand).

On Friday 7th November, the EPA approved 14 more small-refinery exemptions, clearing most of the waiver backlog. In practice, extra waivers/reallocations should increase RIN credit supplies, which would pressure ethanol and biodiesel prices. U.S. ethanol margins are likely to narrow given record corn output.

In Europe, EU mandates require that a minimum of 1% of fuel be supplied from Annex IX Part A feedstocks (advanced biofuels, derived from sustainable waste sources) in 2025, with this mandate rising sharply to 5.5% by 2030. Achieving these goals will be contingent on overcoming slow technology rollouts and fierce competition for bio-based feedstocks from rival sectors.

Macro

On the macro front, global growth shows surprising resilience but also clear strains. The IMF reported a slight slowdown in world GDP (around 3%) despite U.S. and Chinese data being softer than feared.

In the U.S., a prolonged government shutdown has hurt consumer sentiment, with the Michigan consumer confidence falling to a 3.5-year low. Lower-income households face rising costs and lost benefits, and the labour market outlook is weakening. U.S. treasury yields drifted lower amid shutdown uncertainty, prompting bets that the Fed may cut rates by year-end.

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