Market Insights - 30th November 2025

Oil

Oil markets were steady to slightly softer this week, as OPEC+ today (Sunday 30th) agreed to leave oil output unchanged for the first quarter of 2026, as the group slows its push to regain market share amid supply glut fears. At the meeting, the group reaffirmed existing production targets and approved a mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity for setting 2027 quotas. Benchmark prices edged lower on the week: Brent settled around $62-63/bbl, while WTI hovered just below $59. Brent is down roughly 15% YTD, and traders noted the message from OPEC+ is one of prioritising market stability over higher prices.

Geopolitical developments did inject some volatility however. Late in the week, Ukraine launched drone attacks in the Black Sea, striking two tankers and an oil export terminal. A marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Novorossiysk, which handles 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, was hit and temporarily halted loadings. Kazakhstan called the attack on this "critical infrastructure" unacceptable, and activated plants to reroute flows. The incidents underscored ongoing supply risks, though so far Western sanctions and alternative routes have prevented major supply disruptions.

Gas & Power

Natural gas markets diverged sharply between regions. In the U.S., gas prices spiked to multi-month highs, driven by a combination of early winter heating demand and record LNG exports. Feed gas flows to U.S. liquefaction plants hit an all-time high in November, with the country exporting an unprecedented 10.7 million tonnes of LNG this month. This helped push Henry Hub futures above $4.7/MMBtu, a level 25% higher than a month ago.

In contrast, European gas prices slumped to their lowest levels in over a year. Benchmark Dutch TTF front-month futures fell below €30/MWh (the first time since mid-2024) on mild late-autumn weather and ample supply. European storage remains comfortable at 77%, and robust LNG inflows have eased worries of winter shortages. There is also optimism that geopolitical tensions (such as Russia-Ukraine peace talks) could eventually improve supply. Power markets were relatively calm, with no major outages or spikes reported, as lower gas prices in Europe helped keep electricity prices in check.

Metals

Metals led the commodity complex higher this week, supported by favourable macro trends and supply factors. Precious metals surged, with spot gold jumping 2.6% for the week, briefly trading above $4,200/oz, due to falling bond yields and a weaker dollar. Silver stole the spotlight by climbing to a record high, surpassing the peaks from last month's squeeze. Spot silver spiked to about $56-57/oz on Friday, up 6% in one session. The physical silver market is extremely tight, with inventories in London and China at multi-year lows, as well as technical momentum. Platinum also rallied over 8% this week, extending an exceptional YTD run.

Spot silver hit an all-time high this week

Industrial base metals enjoyed a more modest lift. Copper prices rose roughly 2% on the week, and other base metals like aluminium and nickel made small gains of 1-2%. The mood in base metals was aided by improving risk sentiment and persistent supply-side constraints. Forecasters increasingly project a refined copper deficit by 2026, and more than 60% of exchange copper stocks are now concentrated in U.S. warehouses, a sign of potential tightness in future. Meanwhile, strong demand from electrification and infrastructure (electric vehicles, grid upgrades, data centres) is underpinning the metals. However, industrial activity from China remains lukewarm, so rallies are measured.

Agricultural Products

Grain markets saw notable developments tied to trade news and fundamentals. The soybean market rallied after the announcement of new U.S.-China trade deals. Following a late October Trump-Xi meeting, China agreed to resume buying U.S. ag products, including a commitment to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, with an additional 25 million tonne purchase per year in 2026-2028. This week, concrete progress was made, with Chinese buyers booking at least 10-12 cargoes of U.S. soy for January shipment (despite U.S. soy being more expensive than Brazilian). The deals boosted U.S. soybean prices by over $1 per bushel, with vessels lined up at the Gulf Coast terminals to load shipments bound for China.

Corn fundamentals were mixed. Domestic usage is robust (with demand up 7% YoY), driven by strong ethanol production and exports. However, the U.S. just harvested a large crop, with over 98 million acres planted and a projected 16.7 billion bushel harvest. This ample supply kept corn prices in check despite solid demand. Wheat prices ticked slightly higher after recent weakness. News that China booked a small volume of U.S. wheat as part of the trade thaw leant some support, though global wheat supplies remain comfortable, and Black Sea export disruptions were limited, with attacks focused on oil infrastructure.

In softs, price action was varied. Sugar prices firmed moderately aided by steady biofuel demand and concerns over Indian export constraints (India had curtailed sugar

exports earlier, tightening the market). Cotton also posted a modest gain amid optimism around U.S. trade relations improving. Cocoa extended its recent pullback after spiking to multi-decade highs in Q3 on extremely tight supply, with supply pressures easing and demand softening.

Biofuels

It was an eventful week for bio, with policy moves supporting the ethanol market. In the U.S., California approved state-wide sales of E15 gasoline (15% ethanol), a milestone decision in the largest fuel-consuming state. The state already blends 10% ethanol in gasoline, but this move could boost domestic ethanol demand by an estimated 700 million gallons per year. The change is aimed at reducing pump prices and emissions, and strengthens corn-based ethanol usage and margins.

Internationally, Brazil moved to ease barriers on U.S. biofuel imports. Until June this year, foreign biofuel exporters needed an intermediary (typically a Brazilian importer) in order to obtain certification and issue decarbonisation credits. The Trump administration described the programme as a non-tariff barrier that put U.S. producers at a disadvantage. In June, Brazil changed rules to allow foreign bio exporters to directly obtain certification and credits, with the country's Vice President Geraldo Alckmin this week stating that issues are resolved. With Brazil one of the largest ethanol markets, smoother access for U.S. ethanol (and biodiesel) could support American bio exports going forward.